IMHO.,
It's not as big a difference as the 'hipe' makes it out to be.
With open diff's they'll both last nearly forever.
Installing "TADS" in there will bring out the weak points.
Here., it depends on the driver (60%) & the terrain (40%)
Those who do stuff that req. a locker in the front, will eventually snap something...(30 or 44) unless the axleshafts/u-joints, etc. are up-graded.
One would hope the dr. shaft u-joint would be the weak-point... Dirty/worn un-serviced hubs would prob. give up first in both.
All things equal.., two clean rigs, one with a 30 & the other with a 44, thru the same terrain, the 30 would likely twist/snap an axleshaft first.
I've been beat'n up my open D-30 for yrs & yrs..., and it's still as good as the day I bought this rig. If I ever had to open it up for service.., I'd put a "posi" in but never a locker.